Stagnant but not out: The outlook for US regulated online poker

As US igaming legislation efforts stall out for another year, online poker will have to continue its long wait for new state launches. However, expansion of interstate poker compacts could potentially spark some much-needed revenue growth in 2025 and beyond.

The addition of Pennsylvania to the Multi-State Internet Gaming Agreement (MSIGA) could be the missing link to reinvigorate a stagnating regulated online poker market. It could also prompt online poker launches in Connecticut and West Virginia, which allow for ipoker but can’t sustain ring-fenced markets due to their limited populations.

While it will likely continue to play third fiddle behind online casino and online sports betting, at least from a revenue perspective, online poker could see an uptick in 2025 if momentum continues for interstate poker liquidity.

Another poker boom, or bust?

From 2022 to present, online poker search interest has been relatively flat, but it could be poised for a rally. According to online search tracking resource Semrush, the search volume for ‘online poker’ in the US for March 2025 was 33,100. January and March 2025 registered the highest search interest since January 2023, indicating we are seeing a rise this year. While search is trending slightly up of late, it’s still hovering around its lowest average in a decade.

According to Google Trends, the peak for online poker search in the US during the last decade came in July 2020, just months after Covid-19 hit the country. During that month, search volume was 625% higher than in March 2025. In the last 10 years, ‘online poker’ searches saw their highest volume the week of July 19-25, 2020. In March 2020, search was 180% higher than this past March. April 2020 search volume was more than treble the volume of March 2025.

Revenue figures for regulated online poker support this narrative of recent stagnation. Apart from some isolated peaks during the height of pandemic shutdowns or new operator launches, online poker revenue has been mostly flat over the last four to five years.

Take Pennsylvania for example, the most robust ipoker market with six operators after BetRivers Poker and DraftKings Electric Poker launched in November 2024. Despite the new additions, online poker revenue in Pennsylvania for February 2025 came in at $2.45m, just a 0.4% increase over February 2024’s $2.44m, according to figures released by the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board (PGCB).

New Jersey’s numbers were quite similar, $2.4m for a year-over-year (YOY) 2.6% increase. For context, Pennsylvania online poker made up just 1.2% of the total igaming revenue, with online slots and table games bringing in 98.8% of the $207.6m total generated, a breakdown typical of the large igaming markets. The Pennsylvania online poker figures could increase now an agreement has been signed for the state to join the MSIGA, allowing operators to begin pooling players with Michigan, New Jersey, Nevada, West Virginia, and Delaware. 

On April 24, just as this issue went to press, Governor Josh Shapiro signed the agreement, meaning the pool of players to compete with will expand by 50% for the Keystone State’s estimated 150,000 poker players. It would also help lift the entire ipoker ecosystem, thanks to Pennsylvania’s large population of 13.1 million.

PGCB communications director Doug Harbach told EGR: “Poker players may constitute a smaller group of online gamblers than those who play other table games or slots, but they are an astute and influential group of gamblers, and always looking for the challenge of better games and tournaments. No doubt that Pennsylvania poker players are excited to expand the pool of players and heighten the challenge of the game. That should lead to a growing number of players and, while poker is not a significant revenue generator, the expectation is that there should be some revenue growth spurred by the entry into the MSIGA.”

Gaining momentum

A bipartisan bill recently proposed in Connecticut includes provisions for interstate poker, a good sign that awareness is rising for the need to properly set the regulatory stage to allow for future growth. Co-sponsored by Representative Tony J Scott, SB 1464 would establish more responsible gambling safeguards for online wagering platforms, as well as “empower the Governor [Ned Lamont] to enter into agreements for the purpose of authorizing online gaming operators to conduct multi-jurisdictional internet gaming for peer-to-peer casino games.”

If passed, the bill would take effect on July 1, 2025, and open the door for Connecticut to join the MSIGA, in turn taking the pact’s total state membership to seven following Pennsylvania’s launch on April 28. It was referred to the Joint Committee on General Law on March 6 and got a public hearing on March 12. DraftKings and FanDuel, Connecticut’s only two legally approved online casino operators in the state with online poker products, unsurprisingly support the initiative to clear regulatory hurdles for joining the interstate compact. They are also the top two in terms of overall US igaming market share, followed by BetMGM.

DraftKings has yet to offer an online poker product apart from Electric Poker, which are three-handed jackpot sit‘n’go tournaments available in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Michigan. However, FanDuel’s parent company, Flutter Entertainment, owns US (live in Michigan, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania) and international poker heavyweight PokerStars. Due to the small state population in Connecticut (3.7 million) and current restrictions on interstate liquidity, neither operator has launched online poker in the Constitution State even though it’s been legal there since 2021.

In his public hearing testimony, Richard Roberts, president of Mohegan Digital, operator of Mohegan Sun Casino in Connecticut, estimated that the state joining the compact could generate an additional $1m to $3m in annual revenue for the operator. While it may not be much compared to online casino revenue, it could help incentivize launching an online poker product in a sparsely populated state like Connecticut.

As Roberts put it: “Currently, without entering into this multi-state compact with shared liquidity, Connecticut would not be a viable market alone.” He also requested an amendment to include non-US territories like Canada, “which is also seeking to join the compact.” Naturally, the prospective inclusion of additional countries could have an exponential impact on interstate player pools.

It’s a similar case in West Virginia, which also passed online poker, but hasn’t had a launch yet despite legal online casinos first making an appearance in 2020. Having more states to pool players with could incentivize poker operators to enter smaller markets like Connecticut and West Virginia, and possibly make ipoker more appealing as a tax revenue generator for new states.

We’ve already seen the positive impacts of interstate liquidity in regulated ipoker markets with boosted tournament prize pool guarantees at BetMGM, PokerStars, and Caesars-operated WSOP.com in merged player pool markets.

“The introduction of shared player pools has had a significant positive impact for BetMGM’s online poker product and the online casino business,” says BetMGM’s VP of gaming, Angus Nisbet. “We have seen significant growth in our shared New Jersey and Michigan poker markets since the merger, and the momentum continued into 2025. In February, the BetMGM Poker network hit a 10-year record for online revenue and was also the market-share leader.”

But the benefits for operators go beyond increased revenue in the poker vertical. “Shared player pools enhance BetMGM’s ability to offer larger and more attractive tournaments that raise the brand’s visibility within the poker space,” says Nisbet. “There are also greater opportunities for cross-promotion into our other gaming products, which creates a stronger, more integrated BetMGM igaming ecosystem.”

Nisbet also suggests the key to sustainable online poker growth over the next five to 10 years will be “continued efforts to expand player pools through interstate compacts and new state launches.” He adds: “Market expansion is crucial for maintaining healthy and competitive ecosystems. The more states that join, the more sustainable the entire market becomes.”

Poker tied to igaming legislation hopes

The stagnation in online poker revenue in recent years is due in part to a lack of new state launches since Michigan entered the igaming market in January 2021. Despite positive momentum with regard to interstate poker liquidity, regulated online poker is unlikely to gain approval in additional states without support for igaming, according to industry sources.

Gaming industry analyst Steve Ruddock tells EGR NA: “For better or worse, the fate of online poker is currently tied to online casino legalization, and that is unlikely to change in the near term. And unfortunately, online casino efforts are looking grim in 2025 and beyond, with stakeholder divisions, union opposition, and a concerted effort from opponents [including the] National Association Against iGaming to thwart legalization.”

As Ruddock puts it, from a revenue perspective, launching just regulated online poker is a tough sell. “I’ve made the case for poker-only legislation,” he says. “Still, without a financial incentive, poker accounts for low single digits of online gambling revenue in legal states. Stakeholders aren’t overly interested, which makes convincing lawmakers challenging.” Continued expansion of the interstate poker compact could help though, adds Ruddock. “Interstate compacts could increase stakeholder interest, which could lead to more online poker efforts in places like New York or even Kentucky.”

Despite no new state launches, online poker remains a key vertical in BetMGM’s overall strategy as the company continues to attempt to chip away at FanDuel and DraftKings’ significant US igaming market share lead.

“BetMGM remains committed to its online poker product,” Nisbet says. “The company sees online poker as a key pillar of its broader igaming portfolio, and more integration across our BetMGM teams will unlock additional commercial opportunities in 2025. While the legislative landscape may affect expansion into new markets, BetMGM will continue to focus on deepening its presence in the states where we already operate.”

Apart from the need for increased interstate player pooling and new launches, Nisbet sees game integrity and product innovation as other critical factors for sustainable industry growth in the coming years. “The key to a sustainable poker industry is ensuring the integrity of the game,” he explains. “As operators, we need to ensure the games are fair and maintain high standards for poker integrity. The integrity of legalized online poker needs to be a shared top priority for all operators to build and maintain player trust.”

While customer acquisition will always be important, BetMGM is also committed to innovating in its player retention strategies to promote long-term, sustainable growth. “The next five to 10 years are not just about attracting players but retaining them,” remarks Nisbet. “BetMGM’s connection to MGM Resorts is part of a long-term player engagement and retention strategy centered around a one-of-a-kind player experience. With poker, that presents in hosting online qualifiers for on-property poker events.”

Competition on the rise

The growth in unregulated sweepstakes gaming sites, in the eyes of many legislators and regulators, provides additional impetus for passing regulated igaming and ipoker legislation, although it has yet to translate into new states passing legislation. In addition to a number of offshore sites offering unlicensed online poker in the US, there are now a growing number of sweepstakes poker options. The most popular of these is Global Poker, owned by sweepstakes giant VGW. Earlier this year, one of the largest legitimate US poker brands, World Poker Tour, also joined the sweepstakes goldrush with its launch of ClubWPT Gold.

These operators gain an advantage by offering their online poker product to players in 40+ states, as opposed to drawing from just a handful of regulated US jurisdictions. Sites like BetMGM that operate within states’ regulatory gaming frameworks are well aware of the increasing competition. “As the entire igaming space continues to evolve, BetMGM is keeping a close eye on the increasing competition — in both regulated and unregulated markets,” says Nisbet. “In the regulated space, BetMGM is competing against established brands that makes differentiation crucial.”

BetMGM believes its long-term strategy will prevail over unregulated competition. “Regarding the unregulated markets, these platforms present a challenge by attracting players who are looking for lower barriers to entry or fewer regulatory constraints,” continues Nisbet. “We believe BetMGM’s position as a licensed, regulated operator ensures a level of trust and security that our unregulated competition cannot match. Our long-term strategy includes emphasizing legitimacy, our responsible gaming practices, and BetMGM’s commitment to player safety to build loyalty and trust among players.”

According to Ruddock, there are a couple of possible roads to more state online poker launches, but neither appears imminent. “Any momentum on the online poker front will come from the gray market and perhaps a willingness to challenge poker’s current ‘gambling’ classification, and blunt force a national online poker market into existence, similar to Kalshi and election/sports prediction markets.”

So far, the gray market operator threat has yet to result in the passage of igaming bills, even though it theoretically should help the case for regulating online casinos and poker. Ruddock says: “On paper, the current battle over sweepstakes casinos could — emphasis on could — hasten online gambling legalization efforts. But, as the saying goes, games aren’t played on paper, and as logical as it sounds, there is zero evidence that sweepstakes fights are nudging online gambling bills forward.”